I bet you’ve probably felt the pinch of inflation at the grocery store or gas pump these past few months. It’s been reflected in the government figures about inflation too – we’re seeing inflation figures we haven’t seen in decades.
One of the bright parts in all that is that Series I bonds have been in the news too – because they enjoy inflated adjusted interest rates that are seeing record high numbers too.
If you’re wondering how Series I bonds work, I hope this primer fits the bill.
We start with the big news, what the rate is expected to be when adjust in May, followed by how Series I bonds work:
Table of Contents
💸 May 2022 Interest Rate Update: 9.62%
For the experts in the room who just want to know the numbers – we expect that composite rate for I bonds issued from May 2022 to October 2022 to be 9.62%!
September 2021 CPI-U was 274.310 and March 2022 CPI-U was 287.504, for an increase of 4.81%. We can use the equation (below) and calculate that the interest rate for bonds issued in May 2022 will be at least 9.62% (assuming the fixed rate is 0.00%).
What am I doing? We already have TreasuryDirect.gov accounts set up (they can take a while to set up because the system is archaic and you may need to get a Medallion Guarantee from your bank, which requires a visit to a branch and meeting with a manager) and I intend to purchase the maximum $10,000 for both myself and my wife in April 2022.
Why? This locks in the 7.12% rate (that was set back in November 2021) for the next six months and 9.62% for the next six months. If inflation calms down, in the next adjustment, that’s no problem. It’s going to be nearly every other safe investment out there. If you look at CD rates, they’re laughable… and Series I interest has some favorable tax treatment.
Are you wondering how Series I bonds work? Let’s dive in.
What Are Series I Bonds?
Series I Bonds are bonds issued by the United States Treasury that accrue interest for thirty years. That interest income is taxable at the federal level but they are tax free at the state and local level.
The interest rate is adjusted twice a year and is based, in part, on inflation (more that later).
Each person is allowed to buy up to $10,000 in Series I bonds each year, electronically through TreasuryDirect.gov. If you have a tax refund, you’re also allowed to buy an additional $5,000 of bonds using Form 8888.
Tax Considerations
The best part about Series I bonds is that the interest is only taxable at the federal level. Interest is tax free at the state and local level. While your interest continues to accrue every month, it is only added to the principal every six months. You can elect to report the interest every month but most people, and TreasuryDirect.gov advises that you do this, report it at the end when you decide to cash in the bond.
If you use the interest to pay for higher education expenses, that interest may be excluded from your taxes too.
Finally, you cannot cash in the bond within a year of purchasing it. If you cash it within five years of purchasing it, you lose the previous three months of interest.
How Are Interest Rates Calculated?
The interest rate of the Series I bond has two components – a fixed rate and an inflated adjusted rate.
The fixed rate is set for the life of the bond when you buy it. The fixed rate is announced in May and November.
The inflation adjusted rate depends on the CPI-U, which is an inflation figure released every month by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. This is the number every refers to when talking about inflation, it’s the Consumer Price Index for all Urban Consumers (hence the -U).
The inflation adjusted rate is set twice a year, in May and November, based on CPI-U data released in April and October. In April, you get inflation from the prior October through March. With that information, you can determine the inflation adjusted rate.
The well-known equation is:
Composite interest rate = Fixed rate + 2 * Semiannual inflation rate + (Semiannual inflation rate * Fixed rate)
When you buy a bond, you get the inflation adjusted rate at the time of purchase for six months. Then it adjusts to the new rate.
If you purchase a bond in April 2022, you get the rate that was set in November 2021 for six months. Then, you get the rate announced in May 2022 for six months.
One final note on the rate, the inflation rate can be negative but the interest rate on the bonds will be negative. It just gets set to zero.
How Can You Predict Interest Rates?
How are all these experts able to predict the interest rates of future bonds? It’s because the inflation figures they use is released in the prior month.
You can use the equation above to calculate exactly what the bond will be if you make assumptions about the fixed rate. The fixed rate is announced at the same time and since the fixed rate has been 0.00% for a long long time, many people simply guess that it’ll stay at 0.00%.
If you’re wrong, then you’ll be presently surprised with a higher rate! No one will be upset with that.
Historic Series I Bond Interest Rates
TreasuryDirect.gov has been kind enough to share a list of historic Series I bond interest rates dating back to 1998!
| Date the rate was set | Fixed rate | Inflation rate |
|---|---|---|
| November 1, 2021 | 0.00% | 3.56% |
| May 1, 2021 | 0.00% | 1.77% |
| November 1, 2020 | 0.00% | 0.84% |
| May 1, 2020 | 0.00% | 0.53% |
| November 1, 2019 | 0.20% | 1.01% |
| May 1, 2019 | 0.50% | 0.70% |
| November 1, 2018 | 0.50% | 1.16% |
| May 1, 2018 | 0.30% | 1.11% |
| November 1, 2017 | 0.10% | 1.24% |
| May 1, 2017 | 0.00% | 0.98% |
| November 1, 2016 | 0.00% | 1.38% |
| May 1, 2016 | 0.10% | 0.08% |
| November 1, 2015 | 0.10% | 0.77% |
| May 1, 2015 | 0.00% | -0.80% |
| November 1, 2014 | 0.00% | 0.74% |
| May 1, 2014 | 0.10% | 0.92% |
| November 1, 2013 | 0.20% | 0.59% |
| May 1, 2013 | 0.00% | 0.59% |
| November 1, 2012 | 0.00% | 0.88% |
| May 1, 2012 | 0.00% | 1.10% |
| November 1, 2011 | 0.00% | 1.53% |
| May 1, 2011 | 0.00% | 2.30% |
| November 1, 2010 | 0.00% | 0.37% |
| May 1, 2010 | 0.20% | 0.77% |
As you can see, the inflation rate can sometimes be negative. In May 2015, it was -0.80% with a fixed rate of 0.00% – that just means bonds earned nothing for six months. You lost no money.
When Should You Buy Series I Bonds?
Whenever you want!
The best times to buy the bond is near the end of the month because you get “credit” for that entire month. If you buy it on April 20th, you get all the interest you would’ve accrued for the month of April. It’s a minor bit of optimization but worth noting.
We know that the inflation adjusted rate for November 2021 through April 2022 is 3.56%, which means the interest rate for Series I bonds issued for that period will be 7.12%. If you buy a bond in April 2022, you get the 7.12% rate for the next six months. Then you’ll get 9.62% for the following six months. That’s why we’ll be buying a bit before the month runs out.
If you plan to also and don’t yet have a TreasuryDirect account, get on it because it’s an old system and it can take a while!
Comments
Post a Comment
We will appreciate it, if you leave a comment.