Skip to main content

Pick: Instant $1 Million or 50% Chance at $50 Million? Personal Finance Isn’t Always About Math

Recently, I saw this (loaded) question on Twitter:

The implication was clear – you should do the math on expected value:

  • Red button is 100% chance at $1 million = $1 million
  • Green button is 50% at $50 million = $25 million

But what you pick depends on a variety of factors beyond the math.

Table of Contents
  1. Note the Inherent Bias of Any Choice
  2. What Is Your Financial Situation?
  3. What Are These “Mo’ Problems”
  4. Consider Regret Minimization
  5. Remember This is Imaginary!

Note the Inherent Bias of Any Choice

Before we get into the choice itself – just note all the bias in this question.

It starts with the term “mathematics” – to tell you that you should do the math and then pick the one with the higher expected value.

Then you see how the buttons are red (stop!) and green (go!).

Then there’s the reality that $1 million can change your life and if you immediately gravitate towards the “inferior” answer (mathematically) – maybe you’re a moron because you can’t do math. Or you’re desperate. Who knows.

I’m not going to put that on the OP (it’s a silly Twitter question) but if you’ve only known a warm house and a full belly, you may not realize how many people live. Or you do and this is intentional because you want attention – who knows.

Whenever you are faced with choices in your life, try to identify bias so you can make a decision with a clear mind. We are all humans and I’m not saying that the OP was nefariously steering respondents in a direction… but OP was steering respondents in a direction.

In this case, it was the “correct” choice based on expected value but expected value is just one factor in the vastly complicated equation that is life.

Speaking of which, what are the other factors?

What Is Your Financial Situation?

A dollar represents different things to each person.

If you are panhandling on the street, a dollar isn’t just a dollar. It’s a step towards you next meal.

If you’re a recent graduate loaded with student loan debt, a dollar isn’t just a dollar. It’s paying of your loans and perhaps buying a home.

If you are retired with a large nest egg, a dollar isn’t just a dollar. It’s just more in your bank account.

And so the choice between the two buttons is this – what impact does a guaranteed million dollars mean to you? And what does a shot at $50 million mean to you?

Some people don’t need a shot at $50 million and wouldn’t know what to do with it if they got it. That’s why you hear so many sob stories about lottery winners.

Maybe you’re happy getting an extra million and living your life as you normally would.

Mo’ money, mo’ problems – right?

What Are These “Mo’ Problems”

For most people, you wake up and have to take on your responsibilities.

And for most people, one of their major responsibilities is their job. If you were given $50 million dollars, you don’t have to work anymore. One of your major responsibilities has been removed and now you have to find out what to do with the extra eight-plus hours you used to spend at work.

This is a very difficult transition. Ask any retiree what this is like.

Many people conflate their identity with their work and when work goes away, some of their identity does too. That transition is hard.

There’s an adjustment period and some people navigate it better than others.

You also need to manage that money now. You can do this yourself or hire someone to do it for you.

If you do it yourself, you’ll have to decide what to do with it. If you do nothing, you’ll get stressed about how inflation is eating into your purchasing power. If you put it into an S&P 500 index fund, you’ll get stressed as it moves around.

Do you dollar cost average it in? Lump sum?

1% of $50 million is $500,000.

The S&P 500 index moves by over 1% a day several times a month.

Can you stomach that kind of movement without panicking that you may be making the wrong choices?

You can also hire someone to manage that money for you – which can remove some of the stress. But you have to pay that person at least 1% a year to management, if not more.

This means you’re paying someone $500,000 a year to manage your $50 million portfolio.

You’re paying someone half a million dollars a year!

And of course, people will say “these are good problems to have!” but they are not good problems to have. They are difficult problems with no right answer and your body will react to the stress.

And that’s if you win the $50 million! What if you don’t?

Consider Regret Minimization

I’ve always enjoyed this framework for decision making by Jeff Bezos – he calls it regret minimization (here’s the video where he explains it):

I’ve always liked this way of thinking because its one that considers your mental health.

50% of the people who pick the green button will walk away with nothing. They will not talk about the time that a wizard offered them a 50% chance at $50 million and they lost. Oops.

But 100% of the people who took the million will talk about it. They will be happy.

No one ever gets a million bucks for free and says “damn, I wish I took a shot at $50 million.”

A million dollars in the pocket is worth more than $50 million on a coin flip.

Remember This is Imaginary!

Finally, just remember that this choice is completely imaginary. No one will ever offer you this choice for absolutely no reason.

And we all know what the math says – take the 50% shot.

But we aren’t robots and we shouldn’t expect to act like it either.

You may face similar (less absurd) decisions, where math can give you the correct choice, but it won’t ever be like this where the guaranteed choice is life changing.

BUT!

If you do happen to get approached with a 100% life altering sum vs. 50% at an exorbitantly life altering sum, just know that you will have to (and you get to) live with whatever you choose. No one else has to.

Make sure you choose wisely.

Which would you choose? 😊

The post Pick: Instant $1 Million or 50% Chance at $50 Million? Personal Finance Isn’t Always About Math appeared first on Best Wallet Hacks.



from Best Wallet Hacks https://ift.tt/nCpfkBK

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

How to Ask Your Manager for Feedback (& easily impress them)

Your manager is either your greatest friend, or your biggest obstacle. No matter where your manager stands on this spectrum, getting feedback from them is going to be a valuable resource for your professional growth so this is something you should be doing consistently at work if you want to get more promotions and raises. […] Source from I Will Teach You To Be Rich https://ift.tt/XNUxhGu

Cost Income Ratio: Definition, Formula, Calculation, and Interpretation

Financial managers perform a wide range of calculations and activities to analyze a company’s yearly and quarterly performance. Cost to income ratio is one of the efficiency ratios used in financial management.  The cost to Income ratio is used to evaluate a company’s performance. Its fundamental role is to validate the profitability of the company. Financial managers use this efficiency formula to compare operating expenses or costs with the income generated.  The cost-income ratio portrays the effectiveness at which the company is being run. There is a roundabout connection between the expense ratio and the organization’s benefit. It is considered that the lower the cost to income ratio, the better is the performance of the company.  In this article, we’ve highlighted everything about the cost-income ratio to help you understand this financial management ratio quickly and easily. How is a cost to income ratio defined?  The cost-income ratio is defined as a rat...

Best Crypto Sign-Up Bonuses and Promotions

Many cryptocurrency exchanges offer sign-up bonuses to draw potential customers. You can receive free Bitcoin or funds you can use to purchase your preferred altcoin, depending on the offer. The terms and conditions vary, from the bonus amounts to the qualifying criteria. Most exchanges will pay you a few dollars for completing your first trade. However, the more valuable promotions may allow you to receive up to $500 or more, in line with many stock brokerage bonuses . Here is a list of the sign-up bonuses covered in this article: Binance.US : $10  Coinbase: $5 Crypto.com : $50 eToro: $10 Gemini: $10 KuCoin: Up to $500 Phemex: Up to $6,500 Plynk: Up to $100 SoFi : Up to $100 Tastytrade : Up to $2,000 TradeStation : $150 Table of Contents Best Crypto Sign-Up Bonus Offers Binance.US Coinbase Crypto.com eToro Gemini   KuCoin Phemex Plynk SoFi Tastytrade TradeStation FAQs What Is the Best Crypto Sign-Up Bonus? Best Crypto Sign-Up Bon...